Recently, in an unprecedented scale of environmental inspection, due to capacity reduction, environmental rectification, a large number of physical enterprises limit production, shut down!The resulting wave of unemployment is gradually sweeping through every city!Storm, large areas of enterprises cut off water and power production, work stoppage unemployment, family livelihood worrying!It’s kind of sad.
Under such a pattern, how will China’s manufacturing industry be affected and whether it will promote or restrict economic development?What should companies and workers do when production is limited or shut down?Let’s analyze them one by one.
At the corporate and people level: the loss of profits from a hit to manufacturing — pessimism
The environmental protection storm has brought considerable impact on the manufacturing industry. Enterprises have stopped production, workers have lost their jobs, and raw material procurement has been forced to stop.
Short-term impact, the strict implementation of environmental protection policy to limit production, supply is facing a greater impact.Aluminum, steel, cement and other limited production scale will account for more than 10%, supply will be significantly reduced, the price of the corresponding products still have room to rise.
In the medium term, the supply shock will be transmitted to production, investment and consumption, and the macro-economy will be negatively affected.In terms of production, the upstream will be closed directly, while the middle and downstream will be affected indirectly due to rising raw material costs and shrinking profit margins.In terms of investment, the downstream profits are directly impacted. Although the upstream benefits from the rise in prices in the short term, in the medium term, the decline in downstream demand will completely offset the rise in prices, add up with the slowdown in production, and fixed asset investment will decline.In terms of export, high environmental tolerance is one of the factors that attract international capital and maintain trade advantages at the present stage, so export competitiveness will be damaged.Moreover, unemployment among workers and falling consumption are bound to follow.
In the long run, the promotion effect of environmental protection restriction on industrial upgrading may be weakened.The original intention of limiting production in environmental protection is to improve the cost of pollution, promote industrial upgrading, and get rid of the traditional production mode of high energy consumption and high pollution.However, due to the lack of online environmental protection equipment and the lack of market means to generate internal environmental costs, some high-efficiency production capacity is also facing the dilemma of closure, which may reduce the role of the industry in environmental protection upgrading.
Environmental protection remediation will accelerate the speed of reshuffle of the industry, in the strict environmental protection remediation work, the situation of small and medium-sized enterprises will be more and more difficult, many enterprises have felt the “stronger the strong, the weak weaker” polarization of the development trend.
National level: manufacturing transformation and upgrading to improve competitiveness — optimistic
A few years ago, some media said that China had stepped into the “middle-income trap”. The “middle-income trap” refers to a country’s entry into the middle income, facing rising labor costs and inequality, resulting in frequent social conflicts and economic stagnation.The key to getting out of the middle-income trap is to develop high-end, high-value-added manufacturing.
The so-called high value-added, take a Boeing aircraft benefits for example, China has to make 200 million shirts in order to exchange.It takes only a few hundred people to make an airplane, and it’s clear that the factories that make 200 million shirts and tens of thousands of people work day and night with a lot of pollution.
Why does the country oppose public opinion, support WeChat, pay treasure, even if hurt a bank to also want to support?Through online shopping logistics, greatly reduce the time, cost and labor, the reason is the same.
According to the “made in China 2025 plan” intelligent, green trend, the original 10,000 factories, now 100 people can be done, unemployed people how to do?
Through the high-end development of manufacturing industry, the competitiveness of commodities, the increase of domestic demand, the increase of the number of waiters and waitresses, and the new employment of design and new technical personnel, there is no need to worry too much about unemployment.The car replaced the carriage, the original groom became the driver, but the post of the conversion.The disappearance of a post is not without reason, new things will be born, and the benefits brought by this transition process is the improvement of efficiency!
It is also beneficial for the long-term development of the industry to take the opportunity of environmental protection rectification to eliminate some enterprises whose production is not standardized.Carrying out environmental protection rectification can not only improve people’s quality of life, but also promote industrial upgrading.
Similarly, private enterprises in every industry should also merge and integrate, making it easier to supervise management, taxation, environmental protection and welfare.By means of the transformation of environmental protection and the opportunity of merger and integration, Chinese enterprises can be competitive and help One Belt And One Road plan to get out of the middle-income trap faster.
The country’s thinking is very clear, increase the development of light industry, do intelligence, pollution-free.
Take machine tool industry as an example, environmental protection becomes the catalyst of intelligent manufacturing
At present, the market demand for machine tools in China has undergone significant changes, and the new market features of significantly reduced total demand and accelerated upgrading of demand structure are becoming more and more obvious.Firstly, the upgrading of the market structure of machine tools is reflected in the rapid growth of the demand for automation complete sets and the increasing demand for the upgrading of the performance and reliability of general-purpose products.Secondly, the technical development trend of CNC machine tools on the basis of “high efficiency, precision, composite”, intelligent and “green” put forward higher requirements.
The pressure of environmental protection promotes the development of machine tool industry towards artificial intelligence.The old machine tool is eliminated, the machine tool with serious pollution is eliminated, the non-intelligent machine tool is eliminated.The development of artificial intelligence is bound to accelerate under the general trend.
In the long view of the country, what is the immediate comfort, poetry and distance will be achieved.
From the comparison of the above two different perspectives, we can draw a conclusion:
Environmental protection is being vigorously carried out and remarkable results have been seen.However, from the perspective of economic development, there are restrictions on economic acceleration.
To sum up, China has completed the accumulation of great wealth value in a very short time, so it will pay a great price naturally, and the environment bears the brunt.Therefore, it seems justifiable to propose today that the transformation of industrial structure and the transformation of kinetic energy are at this development node.But when a question of public interest is made up of a question of individual interest, that’s a bit of a problem.What is the easiest, most direct, and most effective way to do this?The official has given us the answer, “pollution control with an iron fist, environmental protection storm.”
How can we have a more harmonious environmental policy?How to balance economic, social and environmental benefits in a more civilized way?
Under the background of the country vigorously carrying out environmental protection renovation, the loud appeal of business owners obviously cannot change the direction of this historical torrent.But the common people want to gasp for breath to want a livelihood more, still ask concerned branch to undertake environmental protection rectification while, investigate each enterprise seriously, especially medium and small civilian battalion chemical industry enterprise and the survival of employee!
Effective implementation plans shall be formulated for environmental protection
Environmental protection regulation is necessary, is also the general trend, is conducive to the chemical industry structure adjustment and upgrading.However, in the process of rectification, the “one-size-fits-all” rectification method should be stopped. The “one-size-fits-all” method makes many chemical enterprises at a loss what to do. Differentiated policies and measures should be implemented and the environmental protection supervision system should be refined in order to achieve long-term peace and stability.
We should not only set medium-term and short-term goals, but also take concrete measures to reward the good and punish the bad.
The production efficiency of the environmental protection policy should have the lag reaction, the environmental protection policy should consider the industry difference, and should designate the supporting measure to assist the manufacturer to carry on the environmental protection transformation.
Only by safeguarding individual interests can environmental protection be carried out better
To classify the disposal, scientific and orderly pay attention to the problem rectification.All regions should make scientific research and judgment, accurately grasp and deal with them according to law, and formulate rectification and implementation measures in accordance with different industries, types and situations of polluting enterprises.We will resolutely close down and ban enterprises that cause serious pollution or that cause “indiscriminate pollution” that do not comply with laws and regulations.Of is closely related to the mass production and living of livestock and poultry breeding, the family of small processing centers, the masses of life need to small businesses, such as farms, laundry shop, restaurants, steamed buns, dumplings, XiCheDian industries enterprises, as well as timely response to the part of the reasonable environmental protection demands of the masses, to the normal production and life of the masses and give attention to two or morethings in strict accordance with the policy, and to seek truth from facts, classification, snookering, safe handling.We need to put in place a long-term mechanism for rectification of problems, take innovative measures, combine environmental protection with poverty alleviation and agricultural production, and effectively ensure people’s employment and increase farmers’ incomes.
We will strengthen overall planning and actively yet prudently ensure that problems are rectified.We need to make overall plans for rectification of environmental protection problems, improve people’s livelihood, maintain social stability and other work, make information disclosure a priority, do thorough and detailed work for the masses, make clear regulations, policies and principles to the masses in a timely manner, and actively seek their understanding and support.Resolutely put an end to simple and crude working methods.If formalism, authoritarianism, one-sided rectification or misinterpretation of environmental protection inspectors lead to serious impact on people’s production and life, once verified, they shall be held seriously accountable in accordance with laws, regulations and disciplines.
Environmental protection storm tragic opening, hope to be able to comedy ending!
Reform is good and the direction is right, but there is also resistance. How to overcome this dilemma and reach the final comedy outcome in a few years is a question that every individual and enterprise, as well as the country and the government should seriously consider!